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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Fun Fact

So I was reading a Wikipedia article about Jean Baudrillard's book The Gulf War Did Not Take Place (really interesting assertion that's too complicated to explain here, but the wiki article explains it well if you're interested) and it mentioned that fewer American soldiers were killed in the Gulf War (the first one, of course) than would have been killed in traffic accidents had they stayed home. Based on this, Baudrillard argues (or at least, the wiki article says he argues, as I haven't read it, and I've read different versions of what his meaning was) that the Gulf War was not really a war at all, and that it was actually an atrocity masquerading as a war. While I think there's some credibility to that assertion, particularly when you look at things like the destruction of the Iraqi army on the road out of Kuwait, I'm not interested in discussing whether it was just (I think it was, considering the gross violation of Kuwaiti national sovereignty, though the extent of the retaliation is still arguable). Rather, I think it has some very interesting implications. For example, US soldiers involved in the war almost certainly received combat bonus pay, yet when one thinks about the fact I mentioned above, they were statistically at less risk by being in the war area than they would be at home. In  theory, if combat bonus pay is compensation for the added risk of being in a combat zone, the troops actually owed money for having their risk reduced. However, we can still say that it was just to pay them extra, as it was a massive inconvenience to go into the desert, and, more importantly, they encountered death, which our culture likes to keep under wraps. Think about this--though they technically were in less danger by being involved in the war, they were having a much more traumatic experience by being in a combat zone, being shot at, and seeing the effects on those shot. In essence, they deserved their combat pay not because they were in danger, but because the natural danger on one's life that is common to all humans was made painfully visible. They were paid extra because death was made more immediate to them, though they were paradoxically safer from it in the process.

Two things I would note about Baudrillard's statistic, by the way. One, it is possible that the average soldier was at less risk than they would be at home, but that those on the front lines still experienced more than natural death rates. It is also possible that the troops anywhere near combat had a higher than natural death rate, but those away from the front were so much safer that they experienced death rates greatly below normal (for example, because fewer people were driving, because alcohol/drugs were less easily available and they might not have been allowed to indulge in them as fully, etc). Second, it is possible that casualty rates in the Gulf War were more normal (in terms of net human suffering experienced, not actual deaths) when Gulf War syndrome is taken into account.


Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Bush's Iraq Speech

One word: Wow. This totally took me by surprise. I was expecting twenty more minutes of "stay the course" and "it's hard work." I was not optimistic about this at all. However, I think Bush's speech may reflect a complete shift in his attitudes towards the war in Iraq. Until recently, we had been hearing Bush state again and again that the war in Iraq was going quite well, in the face of apparently massive intelligence and strategy failures and deepening sectarian rifts. Until recently, his administration had been stunningly unwilling to admit that they had ever made a mistake. Ever. However, just a few weeks ago we heard him shift from the tradition and begin to get real about the state of Iraq as he admitted that we aren't winning right now. Now, he's actually gone on the record that he has erred. I think this is perhaps the best thing we could hear from the White House, because it shows that he is at last being openminded about Iraq policy.

He also welcomed debate on the plan, and called dissenters "honorable people." This strikes me as another key shift and a sign that he could be better at dealing with the newly divided government than I had suspected.

The plan itself--increases in troop levels coupled with continued "Iraqification" of security responsibilities and redeployments targeted at problem areas--is not really in my domain of expertise to comment on, but it strikes me as being in line with the increasing clamor from experts to shift to a "hearts and minds" counterinsurgency strategy that may require (at least temporarily) an increase in troop levels. However, I hope that both sides of the aisle make damn sure that he's following the best advice of the best experts and provide constructive advice. Frankly, I'm a bit nervous to see the Democratic response to this. There seems to be an increasing clamor both in the public and in the powerful to immediately begin withdrawal or at least cut troop levels severely, yet I have heard no reasoning that suggests this is a strategy that will lead to any kind of success and anything less than a growth of the dangerous power vacuum in Iraq. Troop increases are an easy target (and that's one reason my gut tells me Bush is being honest with us here and going on the best advice--he is risking a lot by publicly, loudly stating that troop increases are needed in an already unpopular war), and I'm expecting plenty of vocal opposition to the plan. I'm worried that public dissatisfaction may make siding with the President on this one politically foolish, even with almost two years until the next election. As I've said, though I like the President's new attitude, I'm not sure about the details of the new plan, and I'm worried that partisanship may get in the way of the country's best interests. I've heard talk that even Bush's own Republicans are not entirely happy with the troop increase idea. It'll be interesting to see what support he can get for this.

Bush definitely a big error in his speech. He failed to give even a vague estimate of how long it will take for violence to begin to subside after the plan goes into effect. He's long been adverse to timetables, but by failing to put a number on the plan--a few months, a year, a few years--he's just making it look like he's carving a back door in case it doesn't work out. His reputation--and public support for his plan--will only continue to tank if he doesn't have something concrete to point to when the going is particularly rough. A counterinsurgency plan is going to take some time to get rolling, and he needs a way of keeping support alive as images of violence continue to fill the newsstands. Unless the plan's supporters are willing to get on the record about the plan's estimated effectiveness (and I'm sure there's an educated guess out there somewhere, even a vague one), they may well see public support for blind withdrawal plans grow, and that's just about the worst outcome possible.

Whether or not the plan will turn out to be effective remains to be seen, and frankly I'm not so sure it will be. Sectarian conflicts don't dry up quickly--look at the Balkans, Northern Ireland, the Kurds, etc.--and Iraq may be beyond any kind of quick fix. The recent spates of sectarian violence are just ammunition for further waves of retaliation, and it may be a very long uphill struggle to get the vast majority of Iraqis to view each other as Iraqis first and Sunnis or Shiites second and to view insurgents and sectarian leaders as an enemy of their interests as a people and not their representatives or saviors. The Iraq conflict is far from over, but what's most important is that the President at last seems willing to deal with it honestly. If there's anything that can fix Iraq, this is the first step to that end.


Friday, December 22, 2006

The Political Compass

Economic Left/Right: -3.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18

Authoritarian
Left





















Right
Libertarian

From Politicalcompass.org. I used to be around this area of the chart when I was in early high school. I migrated about two points towards the center along each axis and have now moved back again, though I'd say my mindset then and my mindset now are two different things.


Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Nothing

So I was thinking about the Big Bang last night and then my mind got onto the concept of nothingness. After putting some thought into it, I've come to the conclusion that it's impossible for "nothing" to exist within the confines of space and time. For example, say I had a glass jar and was somehow able to suck all the air out of it, down to the last particle. Ignoring vacuum fluctutation effects (and thus making this little more than a philosophical game), there is not a single atom of anything inside the jar. However, I do not have a "jarful of nothing." The contents of the jar still can be understood and observed--information about the contents is available. I could say that the "nothing" is in the jar or that the jar is five miles away--even though I have no mass in the jar, it still has space within it. A photon passing through the jar could be assigned coordinates within the "nothingness" because it still contains space. Even if the jar was made impermeable to energy, it would still have this space within it. In the same sense, the jar's contents also exist with a specific position in time--now, not before I evacuated the jar's contents or after I open it and let air in. Even if the universe was full of "nothing," there would still be measureable distances between points in space and time. In other words, "nothing" is still something relative to things that do exist.

The only way that nothing could truly "exist" would be if there were no space or time. This is, of course, utterly incomprehensible and possibly outside the realm of all human understanding. "Nothing" would now be truly informationless.


Saturday, November 25, 2006

Creationist Astronomy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rh4NkGKTBk


Here's a video of a lecture by noted creationist astrophysicist Dr. Jason Lisle. He's supported by leading creationist website answersingenesis.org (also the producers of this video) and is the author of Taking Back Astronomy: The Heavens Declare Creation. The video runs about 35 minutes. You can watch it all at once or try to watch it in sync with my commentary, though the first approach may be better as I am not certain that my replies are in exact chronological order.


His arguments sound pretty convincing in this video, don't they? It sounds like legions of astrophysicists have made some pretty big errors and then ignored them in their quest to find further proof of evolution. It's remarkable that Lisle's revolutionary view hasn't spread into the broader academic community of astrophysicists, right? Wrong. Lisle sounds good because most people don't have an intimate acquaintance with physics (and of course they aren't to be blamed). He makes error after error in this argument, and I intend to highlight these mistakes and demonstrate that his arguments are based on poor science, not “mistakes” by astronomers.


Early in the video, Lisle says that the “incredible beauty and size of the Universe demonstrate God's creative power.” Sure, the universe is, in places, quite beautiful, and it is undoubtedly gigantic, but does this demonstrate “God's creative power” or merely the predictable, observable consequences of natural laws? For example, pointing to a picture of the Butterfly Nebula, Lisle says that “God made this star with the potential to become a planetary nebula.” However, there are huge numbers of stars in our sky that have this potential, including our own Sun. A star becomes a nebula because of specific physical interactions as its core dies, and any star that is about eight times the Sun's mass or less has this potential. Any gas cloud that collapses into a star of that size also has this potential. There is nothing special about the star that died and became the Butterfly Nebula.


By saying that astronomers know the Butterfly Nebula is less than six thousand years old, Lisle indicates that he believes in the method by which planetary nebula ages are determined—monitoring the expansion rate of their gas shell. However, we can also see the remnants of the Vela supernova, which has an expansion rate consistent with an age of ten to twelve thousand years. Does his belief in gas shell expansion rates extend only to gas shells less than six thousand years old? What about the older shells, like the Vela supernova remnant, makes them just seem older without them being that age? He needs to have a very good scientific reason that those remnants are different, but he provides none. If God created the Vela remnant six thousand years ago, why does it behave like it exploded several thousand years before that? Is God trying to trick us? The Vela remnant and the Genesis account of creation are in conflict. They can't both be true.


Lisle repeatedly refers to things that the Bible “got right” about astronomy, mentioning that God “hangs the Earth upon nothing” and several instances suggesting a spherical (or at least circular) Earth. Maybe those things are right on astronomy (though some seem like a stretch and Lisle admits this at one point), but he doesn't mention the instances that are wrong about astronomy. Why would the Bible make ten references (http://www.biblegateway.com/quicksearch/?quicksearch=firmament&qs_version=9) to the “firmament,” a solid sphere above the Earth in which the stars are fixed? Towards the end of the video, Lisle claims that “secular science” always needs to catch up to the Bible. When are we going to catch up to the “firmament?” The idea of a firmament is utterly in conflict with modern astronomy, which says that stars are at greatly variant distances (confirmed by the parallax effect and numerous other observations). However, a firmament is perfectly consistent with a primitive understanding of astronomy, which holds that the stars are at a fixed distance, stuck into the “celestial sphere.” If you make astronomical observations with primitive or no equipment, you would come to the same conclusion. However, modern equipment is able to detect the parallax effect, which can accurately measure the distances of stars within about five hundred lightyears of ourselves (and there are other methods for more distant stars). Lisle also neglects to discuss Joshua 10:12-14, in which God makes the Sun and moon stand still in the sky so the Israelites can win a battle against the Amorites without giving them the cover of night to rest and regroup. What's wrong with this? The Bible says that the Sun “stood still” and the moon “stopped.” As modern astronomers know, the Sun and moon do not revolve around the Earth once per day. Their motion through the sky is due to Earth's rotation. The Sun and moon do have some movement through space, but if they stopped moving in this way, the result would not be the lengthening of the day. The Earth would still rotate, and the Sun would still set. The only way to make the Sun “stand still” is not to stop the Sun, but to stop the Earth's rotation. The Bible again reflects the primitive understanding of astronomy—geocentrism. It's wrong.


Lisle also asserts that the Second Law of Thermodynamics was still in play prior to the fall of man, but that it was balanced by “God's restoring power.” This reflects a few mistakes. One—the Second Law of Thermodynamics is violated if entropy decreases without any work being done. If God was “restoring” the universe to order, He would have to either physically work—and thus increase entropy because there would be wasted energy unless such factors as air resistance and friction were eliminated (which would require still more physical work or a miracle to eliminate them)—or work through miracles, which would decrease entropy without work and thus violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. If God was restoring the Universe, the Second Law of Thermodynamics wasn't in effect. Secondly, it wouldn't even necessarily apply, as Adam and Eve would be creating a tiny amount of entropy (body heat, digestion, etc) and Eden as a whole would also be making a relatively small amount of entropy when compared with the modern world. They were fine for an extremely long amount of time with entropy in effect. Would they even need to eat? After all, in a perfect world there would be no need for hunger or body heat. The Second Law of Thermodynamics may not have even been necessary in such a situation.


Dr. Lisle suggests that the heat radiating from Jupiter and Neptune (and Saturn, but he doesn't point that out) is not consistent with a very old Solar System because they would have cooled off by now if they started off hot, but that they are consistent with a young solar system, which would allow them to still have “leftover” heat. This explanation makes sense—if you don't believe in the Ideal Gas Law (and its relative, the Van der Waals equation). The Ideal Gas Law says that if you have an amount of gas, the pressure of the gas divided by its volume will always equal the temperature (with a few mathematical constants thrown in to keep the units of measurement in proportion). This means that if you increase the pressure of a gas or decrease its volume (or both), its temperature will increase. At the core of a body like Jupiter, there is intense pressure due to the weight of the thousands of miles of gases above. These gases are also compressed into a tiny area. If their temperature decreases due to cooling, pressure will drop as the molecules exert less force on their surroundings (that's all pressure is, force on surroundings). Since they exert less force on the gases above them, these gases will compress the core because their weight is not being balanced by upward force in the form of pressure. This compression is a decrease in volume, which causes an increase in pressure as the gases are packed into a smaller area. More pressure in less volume equals an increase in temperature. Thus, Jupiter's core remains hot. This is known as the Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism. It's been understood for over a century.


Dr. Lisle says that the Earth's magnetic field is declining, therefore the Earth must be very young. However, we can observe the behavior of the Earth's magnetic field well back into prehistory by looking at the positioning of ferromagnetic particles frozen in lava flows. They naturally align with the Earth's magnetic field (just like a compass needle), so they indicate its direction and strength at the time the lava flow solidified. The present decline is well withing the historical range. Also, we have observed that the field has reversed itself several times (so the “north” end of a compass needle would point south). These reversals tend to happen during periods of low field strength, and we could be overdue for a field reversal. The last one was 780,000 years ago, and they generally happen more frequently than that.


Dr. Lisle claims that dynamo theory—the current theory for the origin of a planet's magnetic field—is not true. Why? What evidence does he have against this? Convective flows of metals in the Earth's core are consistent with both the composition of the core and our calculations, so why is this not true? Perhaps his sole reason is that dynamo theory offers a valid explanation for the origins (and possibly behavior) of the magnetic field that can occur on a scale of billions—not thousands—of years without running down.


Dr. Lisle says that the Oort Cloud isn't real. Yes, we haven't observed it, but this is because it is composed of small, cold bodies at extreme distances (thousands of times the distance to Pluto). It's simply beyond our present observational capabilities. This doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The existence of the Oort Cloud is also consistent with solar nebula theory, which adequately explains so much of our solar system.


Dr. Lisle states that the Moon is receding so rapidly that it cannot have been around for more than one to two billion years. However, modern calculations suggest that the (1960s era) calculations behind this were flawed, and that the moon would not have flown away long ago if it is indeed 4.5 billion years old. (See www.talkorigins.org/faqs/moonrec.html for a much more detailed explanation of the calculations involved).


Dr. Lisle states that a spiral galaxy such as our own would become “wound up” due to the rapid rotation of the center relative to the outer arms. He dismisses other hypotheses such as spiral density waves, but why? He simply dismisses the idea out of hand without giving any explanation why the spiral density wave idea (the idea that the stars move in elliptical orbits around the galactic center and that these orbits are related in such a way that there are areas of dense star concentration where the ellipses are close together and areas of sparse star concentration where the ellipses are far apart, creating an illusion of spiral arms) is incorrect. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Spiral_galaxy_arms_diagram.svg for an example of how ellipses could combine to create a spiral illusion).


Dr. Lisle suggests that “evolutionists” believe that “the universe was created naturally, by itself.” This is a very biased way to word this, because if the universe “was created” it must have had a Creator and could not have “created itself.” This reflects a primitive understanding of the present conception of the origins of the universe, which suggest it arose or simply expanded into its present form. To say it “was created” is wordplay. Even his usage of the word “evolutionists” is simplistic. Believing that the “Big Bang” explains observed galactic redshift and that natural forces account for the present configuration of the stars and galaxies has no relationship to biological evolution. “Evolutionists” is a term that Lisle uses to create a dichotomy—evolutionists versus creationists, us versus them. It strengthens in-group solidarity and facilitates stereotyping of a broad group of people. He's playing to his base, not using accurate wording.


Some of Lisle's biggest errors come in his discussion of planetary rotation. Discussing the idea that planetary tilt is caused by impacts, he states that Saturn's tilt is very large. While Saturn is rather tilted, he is apparently referring to Uranus, the famously sideways planet with a much larger tilt. He also states that Saturn is “too large” to be tilted by impact. Whether he's referring to Saturn or Uranus, his statement is glaringly arbitrary. Any rotating body could be tilted by an impact of sufficient force. To say that a planet is “too large” to be tilted is to suggest that planet-sized objects behave according to a different set of physical laws which allow their rotational tilt to be absolute, regardless of outside forces. Lisle then states that there are three planets that rotate backwards, and that this is inconsistent with solar nebula theory. Let's count the planets that rotate backwards. Venus is one. I'm in a friendly mood, and I'll give him sideways Uranus as a second. He's still one planet short, and there are only eight planets (possibly nine at the time he gave the lecture). This man has a PhD in astrophysics, and he doesn't know that only one planet rotates backwards? There are a few moons that orbit backwards, but it's perfectly reasonable that they were captured by their much larger planets and thus happen to have a backwards orbit. Impacts could explain backwards planetary rotation, and calculations have demonstrated that the tidal effects of the Sun's gravity on the massive Venusian atmosphere could cause the planet to rotate as it now does—very slowly backwards. Lisle also states that the Sun's rotation is “too slow” to account for the angular momentum of the planetary nebula. However, current hypotheses suggest that dust in the nebula could have slowed rotation. Why does he dismiss this theory without providing evidence against it or even mentioning it?


Dr. Lisle then explains that the Earth must have been created because the only planets we have observed outside our Solar System (extrasolar planets) are very large and close to the stars they orbit. He assumes that the lack of planets similar to ours indicates that we are unique. However, detecting extrasolar planets is extremely difficult because of the huge distances and small sizes involved. The simplest way to spot an extrasolar planet is to look for a star that wobbles slightly due to the gravity of a nearby planet. Another method is to look for stars that dim as a planet passes between our viewpoint and the star, blocking some of its light. These and other methods are all very good at finding planets that are very large and very close to the stars they orbit, but they are bad at finding small planets. The wobble method requires a detectable wobble, which requires a large planet close by for the gravitational effects to be large enough. The method of watching for a star to dim as a planet passes close by requires that the planet be in an orbit that crosses between us and its star—think of how rare solar transits by our small Mercury and Venus are—and that the planet be large enough to cause a detectable reduction in light. Look up pictures of a transit of Mercury and you'll get an idea why it's so hard to detect tiny planets with the transit method. Tiny planets can't block much light at all. At present, we simply don't have the technology to detect the much smaller signs of tiny planets like our own.


Lisle also talks about how planets can't form and then move closer to their star because there's nothing to stop them from falling into their star and being incinerated. Actually, there is something that can stop a planet from falling in, and he talked about it earlier—conservation of angular momentum. If an object of constant mass's orbital radius shrinks, its velocity will increase. The closer you get a planet to its star, the faster it will orbit, and this can quite easily stop its inward motion and keep it in orbit. Satellites that are at the end of their service are often pushed upward into very high orbits around Earth to keep the low orbits clear. Why not just burn them up in the atmosphere? It takes a lot of energy to overcome angular momentum to the point that the satellite can get low into Earth's atmosphere and begin experiencing large air resistance, which would slow it down enough to pull it the rest of the way in. Pushing it out is much easier (and it doesn't run the risk of crashing a burning satellite remnant into a populated area).


Lisle shows a quote from Isaac Newton about how the Earth must have been created because it lies within a “zone of habitability” at which we get the perfect amount of energy from the Sun. However, the zone of habitability is actually a large swath of space between Venus and Mars. Variations in the Earth's distance to the Sun due to its elliptical orbit keep it well within this zone, and these variations account for only a small amount of seasonal temperature variation. The Earth's tilt is much more important. The zone of habitability may actually be quite a bit larger than we think, as a planet with an atmosphere that regulates its temperature well could be more distant. There is also the example of the possibility of life on Europa. Europa lies well outside the zone of habitability (it is a ball of ice orbiting Jupiter), but some scientists suspect that it could harbor some life in an ocean beneath its ice. If it has sufficient geothermal activity, this ocean could reach life-supporting temperatures (which are actually quite a large range—I've seen bacteria flourishing in extremely hot, sulfurous water draining from geothermal features in Yellowstone National Park). Lisle's argument that Venus is too hot and Mars is too cold also has no bearing on the possibility of life on extrasolar planets like ours within the narrower interpretations of the zone of habitability.


Lisle shows a picture of Mars and comments on how lifeless it is. However, there is extensive geologic evidence on the Martian surface of hydrologic activity in the distant past (most scientists say about 3 billion years ago). There is debate among scientists as to whether this lasted for a brief, cataclysmic period or a longer era (and hopefully this will be resolved by emerging discoveries in the next few decades), but if it was a longer era, life could have existed on Mars.


Lisle calls extraterrestrial life “a secular replacement for God.” The popular conception of extraterrestrial life is little green men in flying saucers with incredible, advanced technologies and the ability to teach us to live in peace and prosperity. Sure, that sounds like God, but that's just the popular idea of what extraterrestrial life is like. While many scientists believe that extraterrestrial life is quite possible, they don't necessarily believe that it's as advanced or more advanced than humanity. It could even be extremely primitive, like bacteria (Satellites going to other planets are very carefully cleaned and kept away from some planets and moons to avoid accidentally introducing Earth bacteria that could utterly destroy fragile life forms). There's no reason to “worship” extraterrestrial life, especially since we apparently haven't seen it yet. Even if they were incredibly advanced and “godlike,” they wouldn't be gods and they wouldn't be worthy of worship. They'd just be advanced. The early inhabitants of South and Central America thought that the technologically advanced Spanish were gods, but they weren't. They were leaps and bounds ahead in many technological fields, but that did not merit them a god-worthy reception.


Lisle claims that the cosmic microwave background—the so-called “echo” of the “Big Bang”—is almost entirely uniform. He's right on that—almost. However, he neglects to mention that one of the most important discoveries of the last fifteen years in astronomy is that there are slight variations in the background, and that these variations are quite consistent with the distribution of matter in the universe, suggesting that the “Big Bang” happened as we thought it did. The redshift of the cosmic microwave background is consistent with our expectations, and it is almost impossible for this radiation to have originated from any source other than the Big Bang because it is visible in all directions and its spectrum could not be emitted by normal matter (which would show absorption lines as chemicals absorb photons on frequencies there electrons “like”). For more information on the cosmic microwave background, check out http://www.astro.ubc.ca/people/scott/faq_basic.html or http://www.astro.ubc.ca/people/scott/faq_email.html#CMB_anisotropy.


Lisle's understanding of astronomy is remarkably poor. This man has a PhD in astrophysics, but I can see through his arguments after a single semester of astronomy class. His desire to see evidence for creationism in astronomy has led him to these embarrassingly primitive arguments.


Though Lisle only briefly mentions it, a common critique of creationism is the “starlight problem”—how can we see galaxies that are billions of light years away (i.e. the light would take billions of years to get here because a light year is the distance that light travels in one year) if the universe is only six thousand years old? A common creationist response is that the speed of light was once much faster than it now is, which would allow this distant light to reach us in time. They often cite modern examples of the speed of light being slowed in a laboratory, which supposedly demonstrates that the speed of light is variable. However, the conditions under which light can be slowed are extremely fragile (or require a solid medium like a lens) and wouldn't occur for such a long period over the entire expanse of space. Also, changing the speed of light would cause the amount of energy released as the Sun (and other stars) converts matter into energy to dramatically increase, frying the Earth and having very obvious consequences around the universe (this is a result of Einstein's famous equation E=mc², which means that the energy (E) released when converting matter to energy is equal to the mass converted (m) times the speed of light (c) squared. An increase in c would cause a gargantuan increase in the amount of energy released). For more detailed information on this, check out http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/c-decay.html or http://wiki.cotch.net/index.php/C-decay.


I hope my explanations have been enlightening.





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